铁矿石供需矛盾中期将有所缓解
发布时间：2019-11-15 09:31
<section><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1;">中国证券网5月28日消息：4月以来，铁矿石期货加速上涨。分析人士表示，市场预期铁矿石市场供给有缺口，任何消息利多效应都可能被放大，助推价格不断走高。短期来看，铁矿石期货仍处于强势上行阶段。不过，中期来看，后期随着四大矿发货量增加，铁矿石供需矛盾将有所缓解，价格涨势恐难持续。</span></section><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Arial, 微软雅黑 !important; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; color: rgb(198, 7, 13); overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">期价节节攀升</span></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Arial, 微软雅黑 !important; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">近期，铁矿石期货延续上涨步伐，多头氛围浓厚。</span></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">光大期货研究所铁矿石研究员张岩表示，2019年的铁矿石市场很是热闹，矿难、飓风、暴雨相继而至，铁矿石价格在各种消息刺激下一路走高。“问题的本质在于市场预期铁矿石供给有缺口，任何消息利多效应都可能被放大。”</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">“在巴西淡水河谷矿难发生之时，正好是国内铁矿石消费淡季，虽然铁矿石价格出现了上涨，但库存仍在缓慢增加。当取暖季结束之后，随着下游钢厂进入生产旺季，港口铁矿石库存大幅下降，期间铁矿石现货价格震荡上行，市场认可涨价去库存逻辑。而且，库存的下降叠加淡水河谷供给的减小，提振了多头信心。”山金期货研究所所长曹有明表示。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Arial, 微软雅黑 !important; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; color: rgb(198, 7, 13); overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">后市供需矛盾有望缓解</span></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">从供给方面来看，张岩表示，2019年，Vale矿难造成的铁矿石减量大约在5000万吨左右，按60%发往中国计算，供给中国的铁矿石减量3000万吨。考虑到Vale在港口和马来西亚的配矿场有大约2000万吨的库存量，也按照60%的比例发中国，大约1200万吨。结合CSN增产和Minas复产对中国铁矿石供给的增加，2019年巴西对中国铁矿石供给量较2018年减少1500万吨左右。此外，受飓风Veronica影响，澳洲三大矿降低了年度发货目标，取其目标上限计算，较2018年仍有300万吨增量。另外，罗伊山和矿业资源大约增加800万吨。以上按85%比例发中国，澳洲对中国的供给增量大约1000万吨。若非主流铁矿石进口增量以2000万吨计算，叠加内矿1200万吨增量，2019年中国铁矿石供给增量大约2700万吨。如果2019年中国生铁产量增加3800万吨，铁矿石需求增量大约6400万吨，那么2019年中国铁矿石供给缺口大约3700万吨。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">3700万吨铁矿石供给缺口怎么补？张岩表示，最直接的方法是用港口库存量弥补，2018年底45港口库存为14156万吨，按以上情况推算，2019年底要降到10456万吨，港口库存下降的情况，对铁矿石价格是个有力支撑。另一个情况是钢厂利润下降，钢厂收缩生铁产量水平，铁矿石需求增量减少。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">张岩认为，受矿难、飓风和巴西北部暴雨影响，4月初四大矿的发货量最少，体现到到货量是5月中上旬，因此5月中上旬是铁矿石矛盾集中爆发时间段。如果四大矿要完成年度目标，后期发货量必然增加。在一季度发货水平的基础上，四大矿后9个月每月多发1200万吨才能完成年度目标。后期随着四大矿发货量增加，铁矿石供需矛盾将有所缓解。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">就短期来看，曹有明表示，从铁矿石期货主力1909合约技术形态来看，短期价格处于强势上行阶段，下方5日均线支撑作用较强，中长期也处于强势上行趋势中。此外，近期成交量维持高位，持仓量缓慢增加，说明多头做多意愿仍比较强烈。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 32px; widows: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">（来源：长江有色金属网）</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></p><blockquote style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin: 1em 0px; quotes: none; background-color: rgb(238, 238, 238); padding: 4px 0px 0px 10px; border-left: 3px solid rgb(219, 219, 219); border-radius: 3px; font-size: 15px; white-space: normal; color: rgb(154, 154, 154); line-height: 1.6; max-width: 100%; text-align: justify; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Arial, 微软雅黑 !important; margin: 0em 0.5em; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; line-height: 1.75em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">免责声明：此文章仅供读者作为参考，出于传递给读者更多信息之目的， <span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.544px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">文章角度不代表“淘炉料”平台立场</span>。如转载稿件涉及版权等问题，请在两周内来电或来函与淘炉料联系，经核实后小编会即时做出删除处理，不承担任何法律责任。</span></p></blockquote><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); clear: both; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; widows: 1; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(86, 86, 86); font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">主营产品：生铁（球铁、铸铁）、废钢（铸造压块、边角料）、铁合金（硅铁、锰铁、铬铁、硫铁）、增碳剂（石墨化增碳剂、石油焦增碳剂、石墨棒增碳剂、碳化硅）、孕育剂（硅铁粒、硅钡粒）、球化剂（稀土镁硅球化剂）、除渣剂（行通除渣剂、卡卡除渣剂）、钠基膨润土、煤粉、包芯线。</span></p><p><br/></p>
