高温之下，生铁备受炙烤
发布时间：2023-05-29 15:02
<p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: justify;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 16px;font-family: 宋体;visibility: visible">原料频频下行，焦炭直接开启九连跌，铁水成本坍塌式下行，生铁备受炙烤。主流8号铁跌幅近600元/吨，跌幅如此之大，着实出乎不少人的意料之外。生铁价格跌了这么多，老铁们后市看法仍然有分歧，有部分商家认为可能跌破3000元/吨，向“2字头”迈进；也有部分商家认为已经跌了这么多，是时候触底反弹了。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: justify;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 16px;font-family: 宋体;visibility: visible">究竟谁能拔得头筹？</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: justify;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 16px;font-family: 宋体;visibility: visible">短期来看，反弹难度颇大。市场上利好主要集中在三方面：一、螺纹钢期货触低反弹。10合约价格再次冲上3500元/吨大关。从技术面解读，空头利润足够丰厚，此时离场时机刚刚好；二、部分铁厂库存较低，导致其伴有挺价意愿；三、降价过程中，铁厂伴有减产动作。虽然有三方面的利好同时发酵，但是明眼人一看便知，期货是首日反弹，续涨空间存疑。至于后面二个利好，正反馈传导周期较长，而且正在与低需求的负反馈相对冲。所以当下的利好并不足以帮助生铁扭转乾坤。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><img src="https://file.mall.luliaohui.com/uploads/home/common/2023060509211690039.png" title="" alt=""/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: justify;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 16px;font-family: 宋体;visibility: visible">长期来看，铁厂减产叠加低库存的运行模式，会缓慢帮助生铁市场筑底。虽然终端需求仍旧欠佳，但是贸易商的低价货源总有消耗完的一天。一旦市场低价货难寻，主动权或将再次转到铁厂手中。到那时，期货再来点风吹草动，不排除生铁市场闻声而起的可能性。此外，市场有传言称，国家有可能会再次放水，帮助经济更好复苏。一旦传言成真，期货涨势有可能迎来扩大。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: justify;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 16px;font-family: 宋体">综合来看，短期内生铁稳中偏弱运行的概率大。市场上低价吆喝声不断，施压于主流生铁价格。长期来看，铁厂盈利较差，减产规模逐渐加大，一旦低价货源不在，铁价上行动力加大。</span></p><p><br/></p>
