有色金属行业运行总体平稳
发布时间：2022-02-28 10:16
<p style="list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 1.5em; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> 2022年1月，中国有色金属产业景气指数为22.2，较上月回落3.9个点；先行指数77.3，较上月回落0.3个点；一致指数为69.8，较上月回落5.3个点。数据显示，产业景气指数连续回落，但仍在“正常”区间运行。</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 1.5em; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2021年1月至2022年1月<br/><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">有色金属产业景气指数</strong><br/></strong></span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 1.5em; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img src="http://file.site.zhuzaotoutiao.com/site/390/upload/xw/upload/20220225/6378140778492874553250940.jpg" title="560f4af3668231c9d705f0af1caeb66b.jpg" alt="560f4af3668231c9d705f0af1caeb66b.jpg"/></p><p><strong style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">产业景气指数持续回落但仍在“正常”区间运行</span></strong></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 1.5em; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> 2022年1月，中国有色金属产业景气指数为22.2，较上月回落3.9个点。总体看，1月景气指数在“正常”区间连续回落。</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 1.5em; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> 在构成有色金属产业景气指数的12项指标中，M2、有色金属固定资产月投资额、有色金属进口额、营业收入、利润总额及有色金属出口额6项指标位于“正常”区间，LMEX指数指标位于“偏热”区间，汽车产量、商品房销售面积、家电产量、十种有色金属产量及发电量共5项指标位于“偏冷”区间。</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 1.5em; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img src="http://file.site.zhuzaotoutiao.com/site/390/upload/xw/upload/20220225/6378140780547074402478071.jpg" title="348350cd81ffe31368e6ea1ab395a2b1.jpg" alt="348350cd81ffe31368e6ea1ab395a2b1.jpg"/><br/><strong style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">图 1 中国有色金属产业景气指数趋势图</strong><br/></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 1.5em; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img src="http://file.site.zhuzaotoutiao.com/site/390/upload/xw/upload/20220225/6378140781448732044157765.jpg" title="0257f37ea0358cb45038689cd23ba6b0.jpg" alt="0257f37ea0358cb45038689cd23ba6b0.jpg"/><br/><strong style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">图 2 中国有色金属产业景气灯号图</strong></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 1.5em; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img src="http://file.site.zhuzaotoutiao.com/site/390/upload/xw/upload/20220225/6378140782058888208623965.jpg" title="8a80956b264e03924ee22e788f52dc50.jpg" alt="8a80956b264e03924ee22e788f52dc50.jpg"/><br/><strong style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">图 3 中国有色金属产业合成指数曲线</strong></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: 宋体, SimSun;"><strong>先行合成指数继续回落</strong></span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 1.5em; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> 2022年1月，先行指数77.3，较上月回落0.3个点。在构成有色金属产业先行指数的7个指标中，M2、有色金属固定资产月投资额和有色金属进口额3项指标位于“正常”区间，LMEX指数指标位于“偏热”区间，其余3项指标（包括商品房销售面积、汽车产量及家电产量）均位于“偏冷”区间。经季节调整后，同比来看，5项指标出现回落，分别是汽车产量、商品房销售面积、家电产量、有色金属固定资产月投资额及有色金属进口额，降幅分别是3.6%、36.6%、11.5%、4.6%及4.5%。</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: 宋体, SimSun;"><strong>有色金属行业面临较大下行压力</strong></span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 1.5em; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> 2022年1月，新冠肺炎疫情在全球范围内不断加剧，加之俄罗斯和乌克兰边境危机曾一度使世界政治局势复杂而难以预测，海外通胀水平不断推升带动货币政策趋紧。全球通胀仍居高不下，但美欧CPI环比有所下降，PMI投入及产出价格指数也由高点回落，表明通胀压力有缓解迹象。尽管如此，但仍需警惕奥密克戎变异株传播再次冲击制造业供应链。货币政策方面，1月26日，美联储宣布资产购买将在3月初结束，每月资产购买规模将减少300亿美元，很快就会适当地提高联邦基金利率，将在3月会议加息后开始缩减资产负债表。与之相反，欧洲、日本央行仍维持宽松政策。整体来看，奥密克戎病例激增使全球经济增速在年初进一步下滑，各国通胀飙升提振了货币紧缩预期。俄乌两国的紧张局势曾一度导致避险情绪升温。受此影响，全球金价和基本金属价格随之不断攀升。</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 1.5em; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> 国内方面，2022年1月，面对复杂严峻的经济环境和疫情反复等多重考验，我国经济总体延续恢复发展态势，但景气水平有所回落。随着部分制造业行业进入传统生产淡季，加之近期市场需求放缓，制造业扩张力度有所减弱。根据1月30日国家统计局公布的1月中国采购经理指数，当月中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月回落0.2个百分点，高于临界点，制造业扩张步伐有所放慢。整体而言，宏观经济呈现以下5个特点：生产持续扩张、需求仍显不足、价格指数同步回升、大型企业景气水平稳中有升、企业预期有所改善。</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 1.5em; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> 产业方面，有色金属行业运行总体平稳，主要金属产量同比回落。</strong>经季节调整后，12月份，十种常用有色金属产量为511.4万吨，同比回落6.0%。其中，精铜产量为91万吨，同比回落6.1%；原铝产量为323.9万吨，同比回落4%。全球美元流动性边际收缩、全球资产配置调整与风险重新定价，尤其是新兴市场国家的资本流动与经济金融稳定将面临挑战。随着新变异病毒在全球范围内加速蔓延，各国政府在控制病毒传播的同时，也在努力刺激经济复苏，避免陷入瘫痪，不过近期能源价格持续上涨，供应短缺担忧问题仍然存在，加之美元高位下行为金属价格上涨提供支撑。以铝为例，2022年1月，铝价整体呈现冲高回落，月度涨幅约5.5%。国内外铝价同步跟涨，沪铝主力最高涨至21950元/吨，为近两个多月以来的高位；伦铝最高至3134美元/吨。期间，美联储年内3次加息的可能性逐步被市场消化，美元指数面临较大回撤压力。而国内相继出台稳经济政策，释放稳经济强信号，市场整体风险偏好改善。同时，欧洲电力和天然气成本高企导致各电解铝厂减停产规模扩大，海内外持续去库存，煤炭系、油价坚挺为铝价带来较强上涨动能。1月中期到末期，临近春节，下游终端陆续放假，淡季效应逐步显现，避险情绪催生多头减仓止盈行为，引发铝价高位回调，不过俄乌局势紧张再度引发俄铝供应担忧，铝价再度走强。1月26日，美联储宣布将于3月初开始实施缩减购债、加息、缩表“三管齐下”路线图，并表示美联储更关心实体经济的恢复。这预示着为应对疫情而实施的高度宽松货币政策正在逐步退出。国内市场看空气氛日渐增强，将影响金属价格走势。但考虑到俄罗斯和乌克兰冲突仍然存在，使原本就偏紧的欧洲能源供应更加焦灼，如果能源输送受阻，欧洲能源价格恐将面临新一轮上涨。这无论是对全球金属生产，还是对大宗商品市场情绪，都会产生较大影响。</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 1.5em; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> 通观全局，新冠肺炎疫情反复和俄乌紧张局势导致国际经济复苏面临压力加大，但国内经济持续稳定的总体格局不会发生大的改变，随着国内终端消费和固定资产投资的逐渐改善，有色金属工业未来将会保持相对稳定的态势。综合考虑当前情况，我们认为，近期有色金属景气指数仍将在“正常”区间内运行，但行业仍将面临较大下行压力。</span></p>
